Introduction
The Turkish invasion of
This policy became evident in the last decade, where
It is with this introduction that the agenda of Turkish demands on
Today, besides the
1. Greco Turkish relations and the
The ambiguity that governed the transition from cold-war entrenchment to the relative freedom of movement within the climate of detente, spurred
Today the Cyprus Tragedy remains a major source of instability in the Eastern Mediterranean and a major concern for
Recently however, Greek-Turkish relations have begun to warm. In July 1999, the two countries opened a dialogue on non-sensitive issues such as trade, the environment, and tourism. This dialogue was given greater impetus by the earthquake in
To date the dialogue has been limited to ?low politics?-i.e. non-controversial items such as trade and tourism. However, the success of these talks could lead to a broader dialogue on more sensitive issues in the
Despite this "dialogue",
However, a major breakthrough on the
Nor is there any sign that
It is doubtful moreover whether either Turkey or the Turkish Cypriots would ever agree to the demilitarization of the island, as the Greek Cypriots have proposed. Both
Several factors however could provide an incentive for progress over the medium term. A Greek-Turkish rapprochement that resolved the outstanding differences over the Aegean, for instance, could provide the much-needed impetus for the two countries to address the
The EU?s approach to
To date
2. The Continental Shelf
Throughout the summer of 1976 the Turkish ship Sismik conducted research in areas of the Aegean shelf appertaining to Greek islands. Because of opposition at home and the danger of an armed confrontation with Turkey, the Greek government appealed to the UN Security Council and simultaneously sought arbitration unilaterally by the International Court of Justice. The Security Council did not attempt to deal with the substance of the dispute but tried to lessen the tensions by asking both sides to abstain from hostile acts. On 11 September 1976 and 19 December 1978 the International Court indicated its inability to come to a decision on the substance of the Greek application.
The 1978 Karamanlis-Ecevit meeting in Montreux, diminished tension on this specific issue. Both sides agreed to discuss the problem and to abstain from activities (such as magneto metric studies for discovering oil in disputed areas), which would cause friction between them. Although bilateral discussions did not lead to a solution they did at least reduce the possibility of recourse to violence. Turkey continued to reject the median line between the islands and the mainland and insisted on her formula of equity, but refrained from pressing her own argument.
3. Air Traffic Control
While refusing to accept an extension of Greece's territorial waters, Turkey pointed out that the existing six-mile limit should set the standard for Greek air space, which since 1932 has extended four miles beyond the limit of Greece's territorial sea. By constantly violating the ten-mile limit of Greek air-space with her fighters, Turkey has since 1974 embarked on the dangerous practice of unilaterally redefining the Aegean air-space. This systematic testing of nerves has repeatedly caused deadly accidents and could lead to general conflagration.
A regional convention of the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) in Paris decided in 1952 that the Aegean controlled air-space (except the band of Turkish national air-space off the coast of Asia Minor) should form part of the Athens Flight Information Region (FIR) for air traffic control purposes. All planes flying west (civil or military) were required to file flight plans and to report positions as they crossed the FIR boundary after leaving the coast of Turkey. Planes coming from the opposite direction were required to report to the control centre in Istanbul as they entered the Turkish FIR. As Andrew Wilson pointed out: "To have placed the FIR boundary further to the west would have obliged Greek aircraft to pass through a Turkish zone of control on flights to the Greek islands. To this extent the arrangement was consistent with geography and seems to have worked well for 22 years". On 6 August 1974 the Turkish Authorities issued NOTAM 714 (notice to ICAO for transmission to air users) demanding that all aircraft reaching the median line of the Aegean report their flight plan to Istanbul. Greece refused to accept this contravention of ICAO rules and, on 14 August 1974, issued NOTAM 1157 declaring the Aegean area of the Athens FIR dangerous because of the threat of conflicting control orders. All international flights in the Aegean between the two countries were suspended. On 22 February 1980 Turkey withdrew her claim to air-traffic rights in the eastern half of the Aegean, and the air corridors were subsequently reopened.
4. The NATO Framework
Greece's withdrawal from NATO`s military structure after the failure of the western alliance to react to the captivity of northern Cyprus, was more of a trial separation than a divorce since the country remained in the political arm of the Alliance. As early as August 1975, and after the normalisation of
The reintegration of
In his September 1979 Harvard speech, George Rallis (then Greek Foreign Minister) expressed his country's fundamental concern over the Aegean problem in the following terms: "Claims that could result in the enclavement of the Greek islands of the Eastern Aegean in a Turkish continental shelf and in a Turkish controlled air-space are obviously unacceptable to Greece, all the more so since such claims have no basis either in International Law or in International practice".
The most persistent Turkish demand in the Aegean is the demilitarisation of the Greek islands of Samothrace, Lemnos, Lesvos, Chios, Samos and the
In the past
On 27 March 1987,
It seems that the Turks misread Papandreou's pronouncement that he would nationalise the North Aegean Petroleum Company (NAPC) consortium prospecting for oil in the northern continental shelf of
The question of
The meeting of Papandreou and Ozal in Davos in February 1988 heralded a brief but significant detente in Greek-Turkish relations. The move elicited relief from the Greek public and was based on a consensus among the Greek political parties. In
There was also confusion between the two sides. Before the meeting, Papandreou had declared his commitment a) to a "compromise" between
On the Turkish side, Foreign Minister Mesut Yilmaz, appeared to be in tune with his Ministry's establishment when in the spring of 1988 he reiterated standard Turkish positions on the "Turks" of Greek Thrace and refused to consider a troops withdrawal from
The demise of communism and the unity of the Soviet Union temporarily deprived
The Gulf crisis, which commenced in the summer of 1990, was yet another turning point in Turkish foreign policy. Between the winter of 1989 and the fall of 1990, there was considerable change of attitude on the part of Turgut Ozal, who had already secured his election as President of the Republic through the majority of his Motherland Party in parliament. Whereas in the past Ozal had projected the image of a moderate technocrat, dedicated to his country's European vocation and therefore open to a Greek-Turkish detente, during the Gulf crisis he was transformed into a gambler who pursued opportunity wherever it occurred in order to establish Turkey's role as a peripheral power. At the same time he continued to give the Islamic element a free hand in areas which under the Ataturk tradition had been off limits to devout Moslems. He thus managed to extend his country's influence in
Throughout the Gulf war, Ozal succeeded in becoming a standard bearer for the cause of the alliance against Saddam. Via CNN, he championed western values, lectured on democracy and liberalism and admonished the Germans for their passivity throughout the conflict. This stance won his points with the American administration, which were soon turned into economic benefits. Despite Ataturk's policy,
Ozal's transformed image as a dynamic politician with a daring foreign policy, prompted such statements as that of March 1991 questioning the status of the Greek Dodecanese islands. He was also quick to embrace the initiative of the UN Secretary General on Cyprus in order 1) to counter the EC Presidency`s (Luxembourg) effort at a solution, and 2) to provide a justification to members of the State Department and Congress trying to abolish the 7:10 ratio in military aid to Greece and Turkey.
Ozal's successor as Prime Minister (and later as President) Suleyman Demirel, was an old conservative who disliked his predecessor's innovations. His presence in power was conducive to a rapprochement in Greek-Turkish relations. On February 1, 1992 he met with Prime Minister Constantine Mitsotakis in Davos. Their joint communique stated that they had agreed to prepare a "friendship, good-neighbourliness, cooperation treaty" and pledged support for UN efforts in Cyprus. Although Mitsotakis was criticised at home for not insisting that a Cyprus settlement was the precondition for improved relations with Turkey, he insisted that bilateral disputes and a solution of the Cyprus problem must follow separate, but parallel paths. The friendship treaty however did not materialise. Demirel's moderating influence did not alter the predicament of his successors who were absorbed by Turkey's internal metamorphosis. Transition, from the Ataturk legacy into an era of Islamic influence became the main challenge for the new generation of center-right politicians., Ms Tansu Ciller and Mr. Mesut Yilmaz were too preoccupied with domestic developments to bother striking an improved relationship with Greece. Ciller in fact, encouraged and exploited a strain in relations as a diversion to her own insoluble problems at home.
In March 1995, Greece raised its objections to Turkey's entry into the EU Customs Union agreement, with the understanding that the application of Cyprus for membership would be discussed after the Intergovernmental meeting of 1996. Greece's move, although celebrated in Turkey, elicited no positive response from Ciller's government towards Greece. A series of incidents between the two states that began in 1994, over the twelve mile issue, reached their high point on 8 June 1995 when the Turkish parliament granted the government license to take whatever action it deemed necessary (including military) if Greece exercised its right, foreseen by the International Law of the Sea Convention, to extend its territorial waters. Although such a decision had not been made, Greece refused to give up a potentially important bargaining chip by relinquishing its right to extend its territorial waters.
When a Turkish vessel ran into a reef near the islet of Imia on December 26, 1995 and refused to be tugged by Greek boats insisting that this was Turkish territory, and after Turkish diplomats in Ankara officially supported this view, the Mayor of nearby Kalymnos decided to plant a Greek flag on the islet. A team of Hurriyet journalists subsequently removed the flag in January 1996, and a Turkish flag was hoisted on the barren islet. Greek soldiers replaced the Greek flag and the incident led to an escalation that added another yet negative item in the already burdened agenda of Greek-Turkish relations. Was the Turkish move designed to bring the Greeks to the negotiating table over all the Aegean claims raised by Turkey, or an opportunity to allow Ciller a way out of her political impasse? Since 1994, "casus belli" threats became the Turkish Prime Minister's favourite expression when addressing relations with Greece.
The problems over the Imia issue continue to surface. This is the first occasion that Turkey lays claims on Greece's land territory and chooses to do so within the Dodecanese islands whose regime has been described in the 1932 treaty between Italy and Turkey. The sea borders agreed upon was a continuous median line from north to south, between the islands and the coast of Turkey. After the Dodecanese were ceded to Greece, the latter, as the successor state inherited the agreed regime of 1932.
The pattern has become predictable: Every so many years since 1973, a new item is forcefully introduced in the Greek-Turkish agenda, followed by invitations to bilateral negotiations. In 1973 Turkey refused to accept that Greek islands are entitled to a continental shelf, in 1974 the territorial integrity of Cyprus was violated and the island was divided in two. The same year the Turkish aviation authorities challenged the 1952 ICAO decision, according to which, for air-traffic control purposes, most of the Aegean airspace was considered part of the Athens Flight Information Region (FIR). At the same time the violation of Greece's ten-mile air- space (established in 1931) began in earnest by Turkish aircraft and this practice continues to this day. Fighters traversing Greek islands off the coast of Turkey have become a routine. In 1978 Turkey refused to abide by the 1964 NATO decision that the operational responsibility of most Aegean air-space was assigned to Greece. Far from considering the Aegean a Greek sea (since much of it consists of international waters and air-space) the above arrangements were based on the rationale that between Greece and Turkey flights must go over the Greek islands.
Questions and objections concerning the regime of the islets can only be brought to the International Court of Justice, since this is obviously a legal question. If Turkey would agree to submit the issue to the Court, the Greek government has stated its willingness to actively take part in the procedure. However, Turkey's refusal to accept international litigation on one issue is not new. In 1976 Greece applied to the International Court of Justice over the question of the Continental Shelf, but Turkey insisted on bilateral negotiations. The bilateral talks between 1976-1981 failed to produce a tangible result. It was Greece's view then, what is valid today, that international legal processes will preclude confrontational attitudes and will spare politicians on both sides from going back on their word.
According to Greek perceptions, Turkey is forever burdening the agenda with new claims so that if bilateral negotiations occur it will be only on Turkish demands. Of course this strategy precludes any credible discussion and inches towards armed conflict with each passing incident. The most recent, following the Imia crisis, was centered on the inhabited Greek island of Gavdos. During the planning of NATO exercise "DYNAMIC MIX 1996" in Naples (Italy) to take place in the area of Crete, the representative of the Turkish General Staff submitted a statement (dated May 30, 1996), according to which Turkey opposed the inclusion of the Greek island of Gavdos (situated Southwest of Crete) in the exercise "due to its disputed status of property". The Turkish Representative also suggested that NATO officials should refrain from becoming involved in what he termed as a Greek-Turkish dispute. Senior officials of the Turkish Government and Prime Minister Yilmaz himself endorsed the claim in the following days. Seventy-three years after the signing of the Lausanne Peace Treaty, Mr. Yilmaz referred to unspecified islets of the Aegean and questioned Greece's sovereignty over the island of Gavdos, the legal status of which was defined in 1913, by the Treaty of London. According to that document Turkey renounced all sovereign rights over Crete (and Gavdos in this respect), with article 4 of the London Peace Treaty. As far as the Aegean Sea is concerned, the Treaty of Lausanne provides that Turkish sovereignty extends only to those islands that lie within 3 miles from the Turkish coast as well as on the islands of Imbros, Bozcaada and Rabbit Islands. With the same Treaty Turkey renounced all rights and titles over all territories and islands beyond the three miles limit.
On 7 August 1996 the Turkish daily Cumhuriyet, printed excerpts of a Turkish academy report, according to which any Aegean island under six miles from the Turkish coast "by law belongs to Turkey, a successor of the Ottoman empire" and "Turkey still retains sovereignty over the islands which were not given to Greece under article 12 of the 1923 Lausanne Treaty". Greece is accused of allegedly "claiming all of the Aegean islands that are not mentioned in the Lausanne Treaty and the 1947 treaty of Paris" which settled the sovereignty over the Dodecanese islands. Although the content of the academy report has neither been affirmed nor refuted by the Erbakan government, it appears to reflect accurately a sense of disappointment from international reaction to the Imia incident. "Greece has succeeded in disputing the Turkish sovereignty over Kardak (Imia) which is Turkish territory according to international law. Turkey must persuade Greece to sit at the negotiating table about the status in the Aegean" it said.
After the Erbakan-Ciller government of July 1996 was formed, widespread criticism against various aspects of Turkish policy, previously downplayed by the western media, was unleashed. Jim Hoagland of the Washington Post turned his guns against Ciller for striking a "cynical" deal to save her skin and because it was during her term in power that Erbakan's Welfare party went from 7 percent of the national vote to 21 percent. "Ciller never attempted to gain control over the Turkish military, still a dominant force in the country's politics. The military has in fact been throwing its weight around in this time of domestic uncertainty, stoking the fires of nationalism by aggressively courting confrontation with Greece and smacking around Turkey's own Kurdish citizens and Kurdish guerrillas in Iraq and Iran".
Western coverage of the two Greek Cypriot's murder by "Grey-Wolf" paramilitary groups in mid-August 1996, also constitutes a departure from the relative apathy of the Western media to similar phenomena in the past. No doubt Erbakan's decision to visit Iran in the midst of President Clinton's advisory to US allies that they should abstain from relations with the maverick state, has added fuel to the fire.
In the meantime, Greek vigilance must focus on the protection of the Greek islands off the Turkish coasts. In an August 1996 article of Air-Force Monthly, three options of a Turkish attack on Greek territory were aired: "The first would be to occupy some of the inhabited Greek islands close to mainland Turkey. Kastelorizo, the most easterly of the Dodecanese chain and barely two miles (3 km) from the Turkish mainland is an obvious choice, but this seems hardly worth the effort. The much larger islands of Lesvos, Chios and Samos would give much greater long-term strategic gains by opening up afar larger portion of the Aegean". The second Turkish option, according to the author of the article "would be a limited offensive in mainland Thrace. While this seems unlikely, the fact is that both countries are better equipped to fight a series of massive land battles than anything else". The third option, "which would hurt Greece badly, would be the conquest of the remainder of Cyprus ... (however) should Turkey seek to occupy the whole island, it would be faced with a hostile population and an extremely active resistance movement. The game is simply not worth the candle". In conclusion, the author does not exclude an attack on a couple of the larger Greek islands which "might well prove to be a useful bargaining counter for the future, if they can be taken at a reasonable price". What, not too long ago, appeared by occidental commentators as Greek paranoia, is now being discussed in earnest.
At the end of every incident the US urges Greece to accept bilateral negotiations over Aegean questions with Turkey. Given the declared importance to which the US attaches to its own relations with Turkey, the leasing of flight refuelling tankers that allow constant refuelling of Turkish planes in the air, and the sale of ATACMs, Greek officials view American mediation with concern. At the same time the EU partners of Greece have made few credible efforts to mediate and some British TV station asks if fighting over a rock in the Aegean made any sense. Images of the armada sailing across the globe to affirm British rights in the Falklands, and the solidarity displayed then towards a fellow member by all European Community states, immediately spring to mind. Yet Greece must still point out to its NATO and EU partners that it is impossible to discriminate over sovereignty, be it in Syntagma Square Athens, or in a barren Aegean islet.
It is also Greece's task to convince her allies that they have a significant vested interest in improving relations between the Aegean neighbours. This can be achieved if the EU sets the usual concrete standards for Turkey's entry, with no mix of nebulous references to cultural factors. Improved relations between Greece and Turkey besides opening up a new vista of economic prospects, will also facilitate Turkish efforts at full EU membership. This will in time secure the acculturation of Turkey into the ways of the west and will therefore reduce Aegean problems to their true dimensions.
Western pressure on Greece to submit to bilateral discussions with Turkey on the basis of an agenda that has no Greek input, will inevitably lead to a conflict that will destabilise the Aegean for the years to come, will add to the economic tribulations of the adversaries and will ultimately destroy Turkey's European prospect.
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